The Union’s press was at its best against D.C. United, as Philadelphia moved back into first place in the Eastern Conference.
After back-to-back 4-0 drubbings on the road, the Philadelphia Union bounced back into form with a 5-1 win at Audi Field.
The biggest problem recently for Philadelphia was its mercurial nature on the road.
The Union are now 2-1-3 in its last six road matches, conceding four
goals to New York City FC, Real Salt Lake, and the Montreal Impact. For
the most part, the Union were underwhelming in those losses.
The two wins also came with an asterisk, as the Union got to play
D.C. and Orlando for more than 45 minutes against 10 men due to red
cards.
But even before the red card to Junior Moreno in the 40th minute, the
Union were better than D.C., despite missing a penalty kick. (The Union
are now 3 for 7 converting penalties, the worst in MLS and only team to
convert under 50 percent of penalties.)
The Union amassed 16 first half shots against D.C. United, and went into the half with two goals and a man advantage.
Because of the massive adjustments Ben Olsen was forced to make after
the red card and Chris Durkin’s injury, we’ll focus only on the first
40 minutes and how the two sides fared at full strength.
Each team’s formation ended up being vital in dictating how it would play, and where it would try to isolate opponents.
D.C. United lined up with a 3-4-3, while the Union played a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield.
D.C. had the chance to create overloads in wide areas, whether on the
right side with Leonardo Jara and Paul Arriola vs. Kai Wagner.
Cover would have to come from Warren Creavalle or Aurelien Collin,
and whether it was Colin or Creavalle sliding to help, an opening would
be created.
If Collin steps over, Rooney should easily make a splitting run
between the center backs, and at least draw Jack Elliott out of position
and create a gap in the middle.
If Creavalle steps over, which is what the Union prefers from its wide midfielders, there should be more space in the midfield.
The situation was the same on the left side with Lucas Rodriguez and Lucho Acosta trying to overload Ray Gaddis.
Teams playing against the Union can make the most out of
Philadelphia’s aggressive pressing by playing the ball into wide areas
and forcing Creavalle and Bedoya to shuffle wide to the opposing
wingback. D.C. benefits because either the Union midfielders wear down
quickly, or Haris Medunjanin gets isolated in the midfield.
Unfortunately, D.C. were unable to take advantage of its advantage on the wings.
The other position where D.C. – and even the Union – looked to created space was with the front three attackers.
Rooney, Acosta and Arriola had the additional defensive duties of covering their two-man midfield, and were unable to get behind the Union midfield, and ideally play three versus four against the Union back line.
D.C. struggled to step up from the back, which would have allowed D.C.’s forward three to have more freedom.
United was also unable to clear beyond the Union press and find the forwards in advanced positions and initiate counter attacks.
The
Union, like usual, opted to press D.C. and attempted to force these
clearances through the middle where Medunjanin and company could pick up
the loose ball.
Compared to recent losses, Philadelphia has improved on knowing when
to press: how to hunt in packs, and how to not expose themselves once
the press was beaten.
In previous years, and even certain games this season, Philadelphia pressed haphazardly or individually, and wily opponents took advantage (the opener against Toronto and recent loss to NYCFC are good examples.)
The
key for the press was the Union outnumbering D.C. in the midfield. The
two Union strikers pressed the three D.C. center backs, while Marco
Fabian was free to cover either center midfielders, Moreno or Durkin.
The weak-sided midfielder then tucked in to stick to the other center midfielder. The near-sided midfielder then moved out to rush the outlet to the wing backs of Jara, Rodriguez and Moreno.
The Union forwards pressing the D.C. defense wasn’t revolutionary or necessarily a difficult tactic to counter, however, it did lead to the first Union goal.
Once
D.C. cleared past the pressure and the Union sent the ball back, the
front three for Philadelphia were then able to get enough space for
three-on-three situations.
The biggest issue D.C. had in defending the Union was that the center backs sat off too deep.
Often, the three center defenders would be just yards from their own goal, and invited shots from range. The Union capitalized on the first goal, and a large percentage of the 16 first half shots came from D.C. giving Union players too much room to shoot.
It was really unfortunate that this match had a red card, as Ben Olsen would have had to make adjustments at half time.
D.C. is a much better squad than the scoreline suggested, and the second half could have been a much closer affair.
MLS is one of the few soccer leagues in the world that can pride itself on parity, but is there a chance that parity is dwindling.
Other than the anomaly of Leicester City winning in 2015, the Premier League usually has the same “top six” competing for Champions League places. In the past ten years, only Chelsea, Manchester United, Leicester City, and Manchester City have won the league.
The same goes in all of the top leagues. Spain has only had three teams win the league in the past ten years – Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid – and is dominated by those three teams year after year.
The German Bundesliga and Serie A are even worse.
Juventus has won Serie A, and Bayern Munich the Bundesliga, for seven straight years.
The last team to win Serie A that wasn’t Milan, Inter Milan, or Juventus was Roma in 2001. While in Germany only Borussia Dortmund has challenged and won the title in the past 10 years.
But MLS is different.
Looking just at the regular season tables, as they are the best direct comparison to a European league, it’s clear that teams at the top don’t always stay there.
In the Western Conference, six teams have finished in first: Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers x2, FC Dallas x2, Seattle Sounders, San Jose Earthquakes, LA Galaxy x3.
(Kansas City swapped from the east to the west for the 2015 season.)
In the Eastern Conference, only five teams have finished in first over the past ten years: the New York Red Bulls x5, Toronto FC, DC United, Sporting Kansas City x2, and the Columbus Crew.
Combining the two conferences, seven teams have won a Supporters’ Shield – New York Red Bulls x3, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Seattle Sounders, San Jose Earthquakes, LA Galaxy x2, and the Columbus Crew – though only twice has a team won the Shield and MLS Cup, Toronto in 2017 and the Galaxy in 2011.
MLS, like many U.S. leagues, was designed so that an upper echelon didn’t develop.
Salary caps, draft picks, and the single-entity structure ensure an even playing field for each team, granted that they actively seek out success.
That bubble, however, could burst soon.
As MLS continues to grow (we’re at what, MLS 4.0 now?) so does its competitive structure.
A recent report showed that MLS had the seventh highest revenue among soccer leagues world wide, behind the top five European leagues and the Brazilian league.
Despite the revenue, MLS spends just 28 percent of its revenue on player compensation, the other top leagues in the world spend between 52 and 72 percent of their revenue on player salaries.
The single-entity structure allows MLS to retain its money, and prevent it from going directly to players, but with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire at the end of this year, there could be big changes on the horizon.
The league minimum is one item up for discussion, among others that are meant to improve quality of life and raise the competition in the league.
Player representatives want the league minimum to increase to $100,000, while other changes could be made that make it easier for players to negotiate for money on their second and third contract negotiations.
Many of the current rules were made to protect the clubs, so that talent could be attracted to the league, but as a result, U.S. players couldn’t demand exorbitant fees for their craft.
If MLS does change its CBA to allow its developing stars to earn more with subsequent contract negotiations, it will surely lead to higher average wage in the league, and result in a higher salary cap.
The rule was originally meant to protect a league that was in its infancy. Currently MLS is beyond even childhood, and is closer to a middle schooler, rapidly developing into its adult form and full of angst.
As players become more expensive in the future, clubs will have to made more difficult decisions. Do they start spending rapidly as more money comes into the league, or retain the current spending habits? Do they accept mediocrity, or push early to become an elite team?
In just the past few years we have seen teams that are willing to spend a lot of money to instantly be a winning club. Atlanta United (9th highest wage bill in MLS with $11,306,330.49), LAFC ($13,432,052.68), and New York City FC ($14,147,632.75) have all entered the league as teams to be feared though early, extravagant spending. Meanwhile, clubs such as the LA Galaxy ($17,502,008.29), Toronto FC ($26,167,498.69), and Seattle Sounders ($11,376,125.36) are established teams that have shown a desire to spend big bucks so as to be consistently challenging for top of the league. (Wages are reported from May 2018.)
Likewise there are teams that are hesitant to spend, and a gap has already started to develop between these two groups, with a couple of exceptions.
The Philadelphia Union ($8,915,987.84), New England Revolution ($6,818,556.10), Houston Dynamo ($5,673,471.62), San Jose Earthquakes ($7,787,252.57) and Columbus Crew ($6,971,083.47) have struggled to stay relevant in the playoff picture while these big teams continue to outspend them. (Columbus has done exceptionally well despite its low budget).
Some, like the Union, FC Dallas ($9,333,819.28) and New York Red Bulls ($7,689,313.93), have found ways to compete against those with massive spending.
These teams have started investing money in facilities and youth academies (and aren’t the only ones to develop elite academies and facilities.)
Already, the Red Bulls have products bearing fruit such as Tyler Adams, who left for RB Leipzig for $3 million.
Meanwhile FC Dallas has played eight homegrown players this season (Reggie Cannon, Edwin Cerillo, Jesus Ferreira, Jesse Gonzalez, Paxton Pomykal, Bryan Reynolds, Thomas Roberts, Brandon Servania) and given starts to six.
The Union, likewise, have had its academy grow quickly in a very short time, with two homegrown players consistently starting (Brenden Aaronson and Auston Trusty) and another two in Poland with the U-20 team (Mark McKenzie and Matt Real who join Pomykal and Servania).
An added bonus to investing in an academy system is that all homegrown players do not count toward the salary cap, so teams can spend elsewhere.
But let’s reel it in for a second. Increased salary cap will certainly lead to big spenders buying more, but won’t force the little guys to spend as well, as many teams aren’t even close to the cap just yet.
That could certainly lead to more disparity in the league, but it appears that a few of the cheaper teams are happy to find talent in other ways.
After all, the Red Bulls has been one of the consistent regular season performers from the past ten years.
But it greatly affects the MLS Superdraft, an institution that is the primary entry to the league for most U.S. sports leagues.
In football or basketball, a franchise that performs poorly is rewarded with good draft picks. Eventually that team will stock up on some of the most talented players entering the league.
With the academy system on the rise, young players are less likely to star in college and get drafted to the most recent Wooden Spoon winner. Instead they can sign on with teams at an early age and make the jump to first team soccer when the team decides they are ready.
With the two avenues of player entry to the league – purchasing from other leagues and academy products – overtaking the Superdraft as the best way to choose players, those that finish bottom get no tangible reward.
The Union didn’t pick a single player in this draft, and of the 24 picks in the fourth round, 13 teams passed on a selection. Eight passed on a selection in the third round.
Drafts are simply a system that rewards teams for being absolutely awful the season before. Does MLS, an entity that wants to catch up to the worlds best leagues, even want to stick with a system that could hold it back?
With the Superdraft slowly losing value, and big money becoming more prevalent, teams with small purses could find it challenging to stay relevant.
MLS is getting to a point where it will become difficult to rise through the ranks, but not impossible.
Minnesota United and Orlando City are two teams that have never made the playoffs in their two and four year history. Philadelphia has only qualified three times in 10 years.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is two for two in its playoff qualification, and LAFC seems set to do the same in its second season. Many of the new expansion teams show ambition to immediately join the leagues elite.
The Seattle Sounders, the Red Bulls, and Sporting Kansas City represent three other elite teams that have qualified for the playoffs in 10, 9 and eight consecutive seasons, respectively.
As the second half of the season approaches and the table starts to take shape, it appears that there is once again a cream of the crop that we have seen in the past few years.
Atlanta United, the Red Bulls, and New York City –potentially soon to be known as a “big three” in the east – started the season poorly and slowly but surely have worked their way back into a playoff position. Atlanta and the Red Bulls are even nearing striking distance of first place.
Over the past five years in the Eastern Conference, nine teams have ever failed to make the playoffs at least once (Chicago x4, Orlando x4, Montreal x3, New England x3, Philadelphia x3, Toronto x2, D.C., Columbus, NYC).
Outside of a few outliers, there has been a fairly consistent group of teams who fail to qualify, while the likes of the Red Bulls, Atlanta, New York City, and D.C. – Toronto depending on the year, as well – are consistently fighting for top spot in the East.
The west has a smaller, but more consistent group that falls below the playoff line(Houston x4, Colorado x4, San Jose x4, LA Galaxy x2, Vancouver x2, Minnesota x2, Salt Lake x2, Portland).
Of course there are caveats and outliers to this information. For example, the Galaxy’s two seasons of missing the playoffs accounts for half of qualification failures in the Galaxy’s 22 year history (18/22 in playoff qualification).
The Union, likewise, were perennial losers, but after a few front office and strategic changes, are currently in first in the East, just above fellow underdogs Montreal.
Compared to other soccer leagues, MLS is still the one with the most parity, and like many U.S. leagues has teams that are poorly run (see Cleveland Browns).
But the challenges these teams face will only get tougher as the league grows.
Just looking at last year’s average attendance shows the gap in a few teams.
Atlanta (53,002) and Seattle (40,641) are so far ahead of Columbus (12,447) and Chicago (14,806) that it would appear obvious that those two are the more successful teams, not even taking market and stadium location and size into account.
It’s tough to make predictions in sports, that’s possibly why betting is such a lucrative business. The peaks and troughs come around as unexpectedly as the stock market.
So claiming that MLS is moving toward a league with less parity is a tough one.
But given the league’s growth, ambitious new expansion teams, potential changes to the salary bill, and the myriad of ways players can enter the league, there is reason to believe that disparity will grow in the league.
Unless teams can pick up the model that made Dallas, the Red Bulls, and Philadelphia successful, or spend like the big teams, there is a real chance that there becomes a set of consistent bottom dwellers.
The advantage of playing at home in MLS cannot be over stated. Over the past two weeks of MLS action, home teams are 12-9-8. Last year, 10 different teams had two or fewer losses after 17 home matches.
While home dominance in MLS, and even world soccer, is one of the highest in all of sports.
In the 2018 MLB season, the home team won 1,277 games (52.6 percent), and the away team won 1,149 games (47.4 percent).
In the 2017-18 NBA season, the home team won 712 games (58 percent), and the away team won 518 games (42 percent).
In the 2017-18 NFL season, the home team won 153 games (60.2 percent) and the away team won 101 games (39.7 percent).
In the 2018 MLS season, the home team won 211 games (53.9 percent), road team won 97 games (28.4 percent) with 83 draws (21.2 percent).
The focus, however, needs to be on the road teams’ winning percentage and not on home teams in soccer, given the extra dimension with draws.
The win percentage at home in MLS is comparable, if worse than other major U.S. sports. The road winning percentage, however, is significantly less.
Of the teams that finished at least in seventh place over the past four years (2015-16-17-18) in MLS, (the number of teams that qualify for 2019 MLS playoffs) 31 of 56 (55 percent) teams’ had two times as many points at home as on the road.
In fact of all 85 teams over that period, only 34 teams had more than half as many points on the road as at home (i.e. if a team had 30 points at home, it also had more than 15 points on the road.)
So it’s safe to say a significant number of points should come from home games, however the best teams in MLS tend to not only be the best at home, but significantly better on the road.
Of the those 34 teams that had more than half as many road points as home points, 15 finished in the top three in their division. Another 11 failed to make the playoffs, however.
But the relative home and road records can be deceiving. For example, San Jose Earthquakes last year fell into the category of teams that didn’t have twice as many home points as road points, and they ended up with only 12 points at home and nine at home. Meanwhile, the MLS Cup champions, Atlanta United, finished with 37 home points and 32 road points.
The relative numbers shouldn’t really matter since total points is what determines a teams standings, though it is interesting how many more points some teams have at home versus on the road.
For the most part, a team that reaches at least 30 points at home will make the playoffs, unless that team has a truly horrible road record.
Since 2015, 10 out of 55 (18.18 percent) of teams have failed to make the playoffs with at least 30 home points (six finished in seventh place, which would be a playoff spot in 2019).
Four of those teams had fewer than 10 points on the road (Minnesota had five points on the road in 2018, Philadelphia had nine points on the road in 2017, New England had six points on the road in 2017, and Portland had six points on the road in 2016.
So a lot of numbers and statistics were thrown out.
So far, we’ve learned that teams with road records that are closer relatively to their home records are more likely to finish higher in the table, and also that 30 points at home will generally put a team into a playoff position (only three teams have made the playoffs with fewer than 30 points in the past four years, Philadelphia twice and Vancouver once.)
Though there is a good benchmark for success at home, there isn’t a great one on the road. Some playoff teams are great on the road, other teams struggle.
Last year, D.C. United qualified with just 10 points on the road, but compensated with 41 home points. Real Salt Lake likewise had just 12 points on the road.
There isn’t even a road point total that guarantees a first place spot. In 2017, the Portland Timbers finished in first in the west with 16 road points, NYCFC did the same in 2016.
On the opposite side, Vancouver and the LA Galaxy finished with over 20 points on the road last season, and neither qualified for the playoffs.
In the end, total points are all that matters when it comes to playoff contention.
Generally, around 50 points or 1.5 points per game is enough for a team to qualify for the playoffs. Thirty-five points at home, and 15 on the road seems to do the trick for most teams.
But for those that finish top of the table, often it isn’t a dominant home record that gets them there.
Last season, all four teams that qualified for a bye in the first round finished with at least 28 points on the road, and three had at least 30.
The best home record in the west last season finished in fifth place (Portland) while the best road record finished in first (SKC).
In the past four years, across both conferences, only one time did the team with the best road record not finish in the top two (Vancouver in 2017 finished in third).
Currently, seven teams already have over 10 points at on the road (Philadelphia, DC United, Montreal. NYC, LAFC LA Galaxy, and Portland (though they’ve only played on the road so far).
As we approach the halfway mark, these are the teams that have a real shot of finishing with over 20 points on the road, and those dominant on the road tend to end toward the top of the table.
I decided to research this facet of the game as I’ve followed the Philadelphia Union this season. They amassed under 30 home points both times they’ve qualified for the playoffs in recent memory. Last year they were saved with 21 road points despite just 28 at home.
This season has been their strongest ever. With two games to go until the halfway point, they have 17 points at home and 11 on the road.
They are well on their way to a top 3 finish, as long as they find ways to continue to win. Something the best teams always do.
A Second Look 