Author: Emmett McConnell

The advantage of playing at home in MLS cannot be over stated. Over the past two weeks of MLS action, home teams are 12-9-8. Last year, 10 different teams had two or fewer losses after 17 home matches.

While home dominance in MLS, and even world soccer, is one of the highest in all of sports.

In the 2018 MLB season, the home team won 1,277 games (52.6 percent), and the away team won 1,149 games (47.4 percent).

In the 2017-18 NBA season, the home team won 712 games (58 percent), and the away team won 518 games (42 percent).

In the 2017-18 NFL season, the home team won 153 games (60.2 percent) and the away team won 101 games (39.7 percent).

In the 2018 MLS season, the home team won 211 games (53.9 percent), road team won 97 games (28.4 percent) with 83 draws (21.2 percent).

The focus, however, needs to be on the road teams’ winning percentage and not on home teams in soccer, given the extra dimension with draws.

The win percentage at home in MLS is comparable, if worse than other major U.S. sports. The road winning percentage, however, is significantly less.

Of the teams that finished at least in seventh place over the past four years (2015-16-17-18) in MLS, (the number of teams that qualify for 2019 MLS playoffs) 31 of 56 (55 percent) teams’ had two times as many points at home as on the road.

In fact of all 85 teams over that period, only 34 teams had more than half as many points on the road as at home (i.e. if a team had 30 points at home, it also had more than 15 points on the road.)

So it’s safe to say a significant number of points should come from home games, however the best teams in MLS tend to not only be the best at home, but significantly better on the road.

Of the those 34 teams that had more than half as many road points as home points, 15 finished in the top three in their division. Another 11 failed to make the playoffs, however.

But the relative home and road records can be deceiving. For example, San Jose Earthquakes last year fell into the category of teams that didn’t have twice as many home points as road points, and they ended up with only 12 points at home and nine at home. Meanwhile, the MLS Cup champions, Atlanta United, finished with 37 home points and 32 road points.

The relative numbers shouldn’t really matter since total points is what determines a teams standings, though it is interesting how many more points some teams have at home versus on the road.

For the most part, a team that reaches at least 30 points at home will make the playoffs, unless that team has a truly horrible road record.

Since 2015, 10 out of 55 (18.18 percent) of teams have failed to make the playoffs with at least 30 home points (six finished in seventh place, which would be a playoff spot in 2019).

Four of those teams had fewer than 10 points on the road (Minnesota had five points on the road in 2018, Philadelphia had nine points on the road in 2017, New England had six points on the road in 2017, and Portland had six points on the road in 2016.

So a lot of numbers and statistics were thrown out.

So far, we’ve learned that teams with road records that are closer relatively to their home records are more likely to finish higher in the table, and also that 30 points at home will generally put a team into a playoff position (only three teams have made the playoffs with fewer than 30 points in the past four years, Philadelphia twice and Vancouver once.)

Though there is a good benchmark for success at home, there isn’t a great one on the road. Some playoff teams are great on the road, other teams struggle.

Last year, D.C. United qualified with just 10 points on the road, but compensated with 41 home points. Real Salt Lake likewise had just 12 points on the road.

There isn’t even a road point total that guarantees a first place spot. In 2017, the Portland Timbers finished in first in the west with 16 road points, NYCFC did the same in 2016.

On the opposite side, Vancouver and the LA Galaxy finished with over 20 points on the road last season, and neither qualified for the playoffs.

In the end, total points are all that matters when it comes to playoff contention.

Generally, around 50 points or 1.5 points per game is enough for a team to qualify for the playoffs. Thirty-five points at home, and 15 on the road seems to do the trick for most teams.

But for those that finish top of the table, often it isn’t a dominant home record that gets them there.

Last season, all four teams that qualified for a bye in the first round finished with at least 28 points on the road, and three had at least 30.

The best home record in the west last season finished in fifth place (Portland) while the best road record finished in first (SKC).

In the past four years, across both conferences, only one time did the team with the best road record not finish in the top two (Vancouver in 2017 finished in third).

Currently, seven teams already have over 10 points at on the road (Philadelphia, DC United, Montreal. NYC, LAFC LA Galaxy, and Portland (though they’ve only played on the road so far).

As we approach the halfway mark, these are the teams that have a real shot of finishing with over 20 points on the road, and those dominant on the road tend to end toward the top of the table.

I decided to research this facet of the game as I’ve followed the Philadelphia Union this season. They amassed under 30 home points both times they’ve qualified for the playoffs in recent memory. Last year they were saved with 21 road points despite just 28 at home.

This season has been their strongest ever. With two games to go until the halfway point, they have 17 points at home and 11 on the road.

They are well on their way to a top 3 finish, as long as they find ways to continue to win. Something the best teams always do.